Impact of urbanization on the food–water–land–ecosystem nexus: A study of Shenzhen, China

The food–water–land–ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is fundamental for achieving sustainable development. This study examines the influence of urbanization on the FWLE nexus. Toward this end, land was deemed as an entry point. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on the nexus was explored based on changes in land use. We selected Shenzhen, a city in China, as the study area. First, a land change modeler was employed to analyze historical land-use changes from 2000 to 2010, to build transition potential submodels, and to project future land-use patterns for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. Second, based on land-use maps, we assessed habitat quality, water yield, and water supply from 2000 to 2030 using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs. Moreover, crop production was estimated according to statistical materials. Finally, the study presents the analyses and discussion of the impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services related to the FWLE nexus. The results of land-use changes indicated that a significant expansion of artificial surfaces occurred in Shenzhen with varying degrees of decrease in cultivated land, forest, and grassland. Furthermore, habitat quality, water supply, and crop production decreased evidently due to rapid urbanization. In contrast, the total water yield indicated an upward trend owing to the increased water yield from increasing artificial surfaces, whereas water yield from other land-use areas declined, such as the forest and grassland. The results demonstrated a significant positive correlation between artificial surfaces and total water yield. However, negative correlations were observed in the interaction among habitat quality, water supply, and crop production. The study presented temporal and spatial assessments to provide an effective and convenient means of exploring the interactions and tradeoffs within the FWLE nexus, which, thus, contributed to the sustainable transformation of urbanization.