Probabilistic human health risk assessment of arsenic under uncertainty in drinking water sources in Jiangsu Province, China

Concentrations of arsenic (As) in 65 drinking water sources in Jiangsu Province of China were analyzed from January 2013 to December 2015. The drinking water sources are classified into five water systems of the Yangze River, the Taihu Lake, the Huai River, the Yishusi River, and other lakes or reservoirs, which are termed as WS-A, WS-B, WS-C, WS-D, and WS-E, respectively. Health risk assessments associated with As in terms of total carcinogenic risk and total hazard index were performed for children (0–5 years), teenagers (6–17 years), and adults (≥ 18 years), respectively. Probabilistic risk assessments were obtained by applying Monte Carlo approach with consideration of uncertainty. The results indicated that in drinking water sources of WS-A, WS-C, and WS-D, maximum concentrations of As were 28 μg/L, 40 μg/L, and 17 μg/L, respectively, which were higher than 10 μg/L recommended by the World Health Organization occurred. Based on the samples investigated in this study, the mean health risks are the highest in drinking water source WS-D and lowest in WS-E for both male and female children, teenagers, and adults. For drinking water source WS-A, the health risks of male children, male teenagers, and female adults are higher than female children and female teenagers, and male adults. However, for drinking water sources WS-B, WS-C, WS-D, and WS-E, the health risks of female children, male teenagers, and female adults are higher than male children, female teenagers, and male adults. The highest health risks occurred in female children consuming drinking water from WS-D. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the concentration of As is the primary factor for carcinogenic risk of all the five water systems. The results obtained can provide meaningful information for risk managers in Jiangsu Province.