Multi-scale analysis of spatially varying relationships between agricultural landscape patterns and urbanization using geographically weighted regression

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between agricultural landscape patterns and urbanization is important for ecological planning and management. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is the primary statistical method in previous studies. However, this global regression lacks the ability to uncover some local-specific relationships and spatial autocorrelation in model residuals. This study employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to examine the spatially varying relationships between several urbanization indicators (urbanization intensity index, distance to urban centers and distance to road) and changes in metrics describing agricultural landscape patterns (total area, patch density, perimeter area ratio distribution and aggregation index) at two block scales (5 km and 10 km). Results denoted that GWR was more powerful than OLS in interpreting relationships between agricultural landscape patterns and urbanization, since GWR was characterized by higher adjust R², lower Akaike Information Criterion values and reduced spatial autocorrelations in model residuals. Character and strength of the relationships identified by GWR varied spatially. In addition, GWR results were scale-dependent and scale effects were particularly significant in three aspects: kernel bandwidth of weight determination, block scale of pattern analysis, and window size of local variance analysis. Homogeneity and heterogeneity in the relationships between agricultural landscape patterns and urbanization were subject to the coupled influences of the three scale effects. We argue that the spatially varying relationships between agricultural landscape patterns and urbanization are not accidental but nearly universal. This study demonstrated that GWR has the potential to provide references for ecological planners and managers to address agricultural landscapes issues at all scales.