Prioritizing risks for plant health in the Netherlands: a method to rank pests according to their probability of introduction
2017
van der Gaag, D. J. | van Leeuwen, G. C. M. | Loomans, A. J. M. | Potting, R. P. J. | Verhoeven, J. Th. J.
Countries take phytosanitary measures to reduce the probability of introduction (entry and establishment) of new pests. To deploy resources efficiently it is important to assess which pests pose a relatively high risk. This paper describes a methodology that was developed to assess, in a relatively short time, the probability of introduction of a large number of pests. Four risk criteria were defined: the probability of arrival despite current phytosanitary measures (P1), the probability of transfer (P2), the probability of establishment (P3) and the probability of eradication by official measures (P4). Four to five rating levels were distinguished for each criterion and rating guidance was developed. Rating levels for P1 were mainly based on the number of interceptions during import inspections, the number of findings of the pest in the country that could be linked to the pathway and current regulations on the pathway. Rating levels for P2 to P4 include descriptions of various situations that may occur and which are ranked according to the opinion of the authors. The combination P1 to P3 was a relative measure for the probability of introduction in the absence of official eradication measures and the combination P1 to P4 was a measure for the probability of introduction despite official eradication measures.
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