Forecasting of the world pistachio market (supply, demand and price)
2011
Sedaghat, R.
Supply, demand and price forecasting can provide an appropriate context for long running programming of production and exports. Pistachio is the main agricultural produce that Iran is competing with some other producing nations very closely in its production and exports. With regards to the importance of long running programming for pistachio and to avoid any short run decisions, in this research, world price, supply and demand were forecasted for Pistachio from 2006 till 2015. Data on concerned variables during 1986-2005 were collected by visiting governmental organizations and institutions like management and programming organization, agricultural and commercial data sources and also registered data in FAOSAT. Regression, algebraic average, forecasting with supply and demand factors and ARIMA methods were employed to analyze the data collected. Results revealed that the average world export demand will be promoted by 12.5 percent from the first to the second period. Average world supply also will be increased by 36.7 percent at the same time period. Domestic consumption in producing countries will be also increased by 74.4 percent from the first to the second time period. Average world market price will be enhanced with the growth rate of 52.5 percent in the similar time period. Lastly, it is indicated that any new investment in producing nations can be economical if yield doesn't decrease / remain stable and production costs increase with the rate of less than 52.5 percent from the first period to the second one.
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