Co-occurrence of snow leopard, wolf and Siberian ibex under livestock encroachment into protected areas across the Mongolian Altai

In countries such as Mongolia, where globalization of the cashmere market has spurred herders to massively increase their livestock numbers, an important conservation concern is the effect of livestock encroachment on wildlife. This is especially important inside protected areas (PAs), which often represent the last refugia for threatened large mammals. We used camera-traps to sample four areas with different protection status across the Mongolian Altai Mountains, and targeted a predator-prey system composed of livestock, one large herbivore, the Siberian ibex, and two large carnivores, the snow leopard and the wolf. To determine the effect of livestock on habitat use by the wild species and their spatio-temporal co-occurrence we applied an occupancy framework explicitly developed for modelling interacting species. We recorded a widespread presence of domestic animals in the PAs, and observed avoidance of sites used by livestock by snow leopard and ibex, while wolves tended to co-occur with it. Snow leopard and ibex showed clear mutual co-occurrence, indicating a tight predator-prey relationship. Results provide evidence that, at the scale of sites sampled primarily to maximise snow leopard detections, grazing livestock interferes with wild species by inducing avoidance in snow leopards, and attraction in wolves. We suggest that (1) PAs management should enforce real grazing limitations on the ground, especially in the core areas of the parks; (2) new policies incorporating wildlife conservation into government subsidies to pastoralists should be envisaged, to prevent increasing displacement of snow leopards and ibex; (3) as wolves co-occurred with livestock, with the potential for human-wildlife conflicts, we encourage the use of a set of prevention techniques to mitigate livestock depredation.