Profitability assessment of Haynesville shale gas wells
2012
Kaiser, Mark J.
The Haynesville shale in Louisiana is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in the past decade and promise to dramatically change the course of future energy development given its enormous resource potential. Unconventional gas resources are abundant, but their development is particularly sensitive to technologic risk, geologic uncertainty, and gas price. To produce at commercial rates, shale gas wells require horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing which significantly increases the capital cost. The purpose of this paper is to examine the price sensitivity of Haynesville wells and the economic viability of the play. We characterize the operating envelope under which Haynesville wells are economic and describe the profit space based on a review of production and cost characteristics. The majority of Haynesville wells fail to break-even on a full-cycle basis at prevailing gas prices. This harsh economic reality will control future activity after new entrants fulfill their drilling requirements. For $5/Mcf gas, the average Haynesville well is expected to generate a 10% return when drilling and completion costs are $7 million and operating expenditures are $1/Mcf. We explore two-variable factor models using type curves and introduce functional relations for the multiple variable case.
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