Modelling operational adaptations of tactical production plans on pot plant nurseries: a simulation approach
1999
Leutscher, K.J. | Renkema, J.A. | Challa, H.
During the implementation of tactical production plans on pot plant nurseries actual conditions deviating from tactical planning premises may give reason for operational adaptation of the current plan. Therefore, in the present study, operational decision-making in pot plant production under uncertainty with respect to crop growth and price formation was analysed by means of simulation and subsequent regression metamodelling. Stochastic patterns of crop growth and price formation lead to considerable variation in annual net farm income. The regression metamodelling analysis, nevertheless, showed that more comprehensive strategies of operational decision-making improved profitability. Moreover, the largest improvement of profitability was found for inferior tactical production plans. In conclusion, operational decision-making may contribute to the nursery's profitability, although management costs and long-term effects should also be taken into consideration.
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