The Aquatic Acidification Index: A New Regulatory Metric Linking Atmospheric and Biogeochemical Models to Assess Potential Aquatic Ecosystem Recovery
2014
Scheffe, Richard D. | Lynch, Jason A. | Reff, Adam | Kelly, James T. | Hubbell, Bryan | Greaver, Tara L. | Smith, J Travis
US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are based on quantitative linkages between ambient air concentrations and an effects indicator. Critical loads (CLs) can provide quantitative information on safe levels of atmospheric deposition to aquatic systems, but CLs cannot be directly used in the NAAQS context because they are not expressed in terms of atmospheric concentrations. Here, we describe the aquatic acidification index (AAI) model that incorporates CL concepts and relates atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur concentrations to an acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) effects indicator (Fig. 1). The AAI estimates the potential surface water ANC associated with a set of atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen and sulfur and a region's biogeochemical and hydrological attributes by combining steady-state CL modeling with air quality modeling outputs. Initial applications of the AAI model yielded results consistent with well-recognized spatial patterns of acid-sensitive aquatic systems. Furthermore, the response of AAI predictions to future year changes in NO ₓ and SO ₓ emissions suggest that planned national emission reduction strategies designed to reduce ozone and particulate matter air pollution will produce increases in surface water ANC.
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