Predicting the time required for CNMP development for swine farms using statistical methods and real data
2004
Kloot, R.W. | Rickman, J.D. | Evans, W.M.
Between June and December of 2002, a private company conducted a pilot project wherein it developed 40 comprehensive nutrient management plans (CNMPs) for confined swine operations in seven states. The time taken to develop a CNMP ranged from 45 to 262 h, with a mean of 130 h. Approximately 66% of these CNMPs took between 104 and 143 h to develop. Linear regression modeling, using site-specific operational variables for 29 of the swine operations, produced a number of equations that explained between 54% and 87% of the variability in CNMP development time. The regression modeling shows that while land-based variables (e.g., crop rotation, number of fields) tended to be better predictors than animal- based variables (e.g., number of head, animal units), the use of interaction terms (e.g., number of fields times animal units) was most successful in explaining variability in CNMP development time. The regression exercise and the resulting equations show that the relationship between single operational variables and CNMP development time is neither simple nor linear.
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