The efficiency of land and energy use in tropical economies and agriculture
1993
Hall, C.A.S. | Hall, M.H.P.
Technological optimism about economic processes, and especially the food production required to feed the world's growing population, must be tempered severely by constraints caused by limited land and fossil energy availability. We examine this hypothesis explicitly using several empirical assessments and several computer models, one of which was specifically designed to convey complex information to a non-technical population. We use data from various countries for our analyses but present more detail for Costa Rica. Our analyses find little support for the idea that development can take place without commensurate energy investments. We also extrapolate through the Year 2050 to project the amount of land and fossil energy that would be required to meet Costa Rican food demand, under a range of assumptions about population growth rates, land distribution, national food self-sufficiency, fertilizer availability, erosion rates and relative prices of coffee and fertilizer. Our results suggest that during the first quarter to half of the next century, it will be increasingly difficult, and eventually impossible, to feed a growing Costa Rican population no matter what (realistic) assumptions are made. The most important variables are the price of fertilizer exports and whether land is used principally for domestic crops or for export crops that are traded for food.
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