Long-term air pollution and COVID-19 mortality rates in California: Findings from the Spring/Summer and Winter surges of COVID-19

A growing number of studies report associations between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality. Most were ecological studies at the county or regional level which disregard important local variability and relied on data from only the first few months of the pandemic. Using COVID-19 deaths identified from death certificates in California, we evaluated whether long-term ambient air pollution was related to weekly COVID-19 mortality at the census tract-level during the first ∼12 months of the pandemic. Weekly COVID-19 mortality for each census tract was calculated based on geocoded death certificate data. Annual average concentrations of ambient particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM₂.₅) and <10 μm (PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) over 2014–2019 were assessed for all census tracts using inverse distance-squared weighting based on data from the ambient air quality monitoring system. Negative binomial mixed models related weekly census tract COVID-19 mortality counts to a natural cubic spline for calendar week. We included adjustments for potential confounders (census tract demographic and socioeconomic factors), random effects for census tract and county, and an offset for census tract population. Data were analyzed as two study periods: Spring/Summer (March 16-October 18, 2020) and Winter (October 19, 2020–March 7, 2021). Mean (standard deviation) concentrations were 10.3 (2.1) μg/m³ for PM₂.₅, 25.5 (7.1) μg/m³ for PM₁₀, 11.3 (4.0) ppb for NO₂, and 42.8 (6.9) ppb for O₃. For Spring/Summer, adjusted rate ratios per standard deviation increase were 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.17) for PM₂.₅, 1.16 (1.11, 1.21) for PM₁₀, 1.06 (1.02, 1.10) for NO₂, and 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) for O₃. Associations were replicated in Winter, although they were attenuated for PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀. Study findings support a relation between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and COVID-19 mortality. Communities with historically high pollution levels might be at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality.