Climate change and temperature rise: Implications on food- and water-borne diseases
2012
El-Fadel, Mutasem | Ghanimeh, Sophia | Maroun, Rania | Alameddine, Ibrahim
This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2°C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures.
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