Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector
2015
McCarl, Bruce A. | Musumba, Mark | Smith, Joel B. | Kirshen, Paul | Jones, Russell | El-Ganzori, Akram | Ali, Mohamed A. | Kotb, Mossad | El-Shinnawy, Ibrahim | El-Agizy, Mona | Bayoumi, Mohamed | Hynninen, Riina
Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.
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