A spatiotemporal interpolation method for the assessment of pollutant concentrations in the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent areas from 2004 to 2013

Nitrogen is one of the most significant pollutants in the Yangtze River estuary (YRE), China. Reliable estimation of nitrogen concentration in the water is crucial for assessment of the water quality of the estuary. Because ocean fronts exist in the YRE, which divide water masses into different regions, it is necessary to account for the heterogeneity of the water surface when predicting nitrogen concentrations. A new geostatistical method, called spatiotemporal point mean of surface with non-homogeneity (ST-PMSN), is proposed to model the non-stationary spatiotemporal random process of nitrogen concentrations between 2004 and 2013 in the YRE. The method considers the spatiotemporal correlation of surface water nitrogen and uses information from both sides of a boundary for heterogeneous water masses. Comparing with several other interpolating methods, including spatial ordinary kriging (OK), stratified ordinary kriging (SOK), point mean of surface with non-homogeneity (P-MSN), spatiotemporal ordinary kriging (STK), and stratified spatiotemporal ordinary kriging (SSTK), the cross-validation results show that ST-PMSN has the highest accuracy, followed by SSTK, STK, P-MSN, SOK, and OK in descending order. ST-PMSN is therefore demonstrated to be effective in estimating the nitrogen pollutant concentrations in a stratified estuary. According to interpolated nitrogen concentrations in the YRE, water quality has generally deteriorated—with fluctuations—from 2004 to 2013. The average annual reduction in area of water quality of Grades I and II from 2004 to 2013 was 1.10%. At the same time, the average annual increase in area of water quality of Grades III and IV was 0.89% and that of Grade V was 0.21%. The results of this study provide a new and more accurate interpolating method for assessing the pollutant concentration in the marine and offers guidance for more precise classification of water quality in the YRE.