Recent changes of trans-boundary air pollution over the Yellow Sea: Implications for future air quality in South Korea

The influence of air pollutants originating from the Chinese region on air quality over South Korea has been a major concern for policymakers. To investigate the inter-annual trends of the long-distance transport of air pollutants from China to South Korea, multi-year trend analysis was carried out for Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, as a proxy of particulate matter), and CO (a water-insoluble air pollutant) and SO₂ (a partially water-soluble air pollutant), over three regions in Northeast Asia. Air pollutants are typically long-range transported from the highly polluted parts of China to South Korea through the Yellow Sea. Taking advantage of this geographical merit, we carried out the multi-year trend analysis with a special focus on the Yellow Sea region. Decreasing trends of about 5–10%, 13–17% and 55–61% during the last decade were observed in surface CO, AOD and tropospheric SO₂ columns over the North China Plain (NCP), Yellow Sea (YS), and South Korea (SK), respectively. Such decreasing trends were also found consistently during the last three, five, and seven years, indicating that the changes in pollution levels are likely in response to recent policy measures taken by the Chinese and Korean governments to improve air quality over the regions. Due to these efforts, the amounts of air pollutants transported from China to South Korea are expected to decrease in future years, to the likely rates of 1.50 ppb yr⁻¹, 0.05 DU yr⁻¹, and 0.56 μg m⁻³ yr⁻¹ over the YS region for CO, SO₂, and PM₂.₅, respectively. Given the ambitious plans recently announced by the Chinese government for the 21st meeting of Conference of Parties (COP21) and its co-control effects, the suggested percentage rates may even be conservative numbers. This analysis is expected to provide South Korean policymakers with valuable information to establish new air pollution policies in South Korea.