Giant panda habitat networks and conservation: is this species adequately protected

Context. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are restricted to six mountain ranges at the edge of the Tibetan Plateau. One of these ranges, the Qinling Mountains, contains the highest density of giant pandas and is home to ~20% of those remaining in the wild. Commercial logging and other developments have resulted in habitat fragmentation, and an efficient and powerful conservation network is now needed for the species in this area. Aims. This study sought to assess giant panda habitat and estimate the carrying capacity of this reserve network. Our goal was to improve the function and carrying capacity of the reserve network and facilitate population growth and gene flow among subpopulations of giant pandas. Methods. We use habitat suitability models to assess the efficacy of conservation networks. With estimation of carrying capacity by home range, we can reveal issues facing reserves and populations of endangered species they contain. Here, we define key habitat, linkages, corridors and overall connectivity and then use habitat network modelling and spatial analyses to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas across their Qinling Mountains stronghold. Key results. We found that 91% of giant panda sightings were in suitable or marginally suitable habitat. The total area of giant panda habitat present in the Qinling Mountains is ~1600km² fragmented across four key habitat blocks by national roads or other human activity. The current nature reserve network encompasses 71% of available suitable habitat and 62% of available marginal habitat, meaning a significant proportion of panda habitat remains outside the current conservation network. We found that giant panda reserves across this region are not equal in their carrying capacity; some reserves contain an overabundance of giant pandas and the wellbeing of these populations are in doubt. Conclusions. Our results highlight the potential risk of high densities and bamboo flowering events to the safety of giant pandas. With poor population size and heavy isolation, small populations will not persist without translocation. Implication. Redrawing the reserve network to correct localised problems may improve the function of the giant panda protection system, build capacity in the reserve network, and decrease human-wildlife conflict. We propose a new reserve and adjustment of the borders and region for three reserves.