Food from 458 m2—calculation for a sustainable, circular, and local land-based and landless food production system
2021
Rahmann, Gerold | Grimm, Daniel
Four hundred fifty-eight meter square is the available cropland per person throughout Africa, if the population will increase 4 to 5 times towards 4.3 to 5.9 billion people in 2100, the maximum estimation of the UN 2019 (95% confidence interval). This space is not enough for food sovereignty, if the low African yields remain. Even with the global average yields, nearly 3 times higher than African yields, will not allow food sovereignty. Hunger, wars, diseases, and mass migration can be the consequences already long time before 2100. Nevertheless, food sovereignty is possible, but not in the way as it is done up to today by governments and development projects. In the future, intensification of (yields) and/or expansion (grassland, forest: LULUCF) of agriculture will not be able to produce enough, nutritious, and affordable food for everyone. But clever combining of land-based and landless food production can be a solution for a local, sustainable, and circular food security. Maize and soybeans are best for WFP minimum diets and have the best yields. Using insects and earthworms as protein source can deliver enough and nutritious protein, and local photoreactors can produce oil/and/or starch for food energy. Later can be large industrial and very small household scaled. This “out-of-the-box” system approach needs research and development. Every good research needs good questions and a concept with some simple calculations to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Socio-economic aspects are often not considered enough in technical focused and far ahead R&D.
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