ClimProb: Software for Assisting Climate-Related Decisionmaking

Agricultural decisionmakers often base climate-related decisions solely on experience. Ideally, these management decisions should be based on quantifiable information, obtained by examination of long-term climatological records. The need to quickly and easily quantify climatic information was the primary incentive for the development of ClimProb (short for climatological probabilities). ClimProb, a PC-based IBM-compatible software package, is a tool that helps guide decisions by developing probabilities of climatic events based on the climatological history of a particular weather station. This software package allows the user to choose from 17 temperature options, six precipitation options, and eight degree day options. ClimProb's design is unique in two ways. First, the user defines a time window specific to a particular application. Second, the user chooses values for thresholds, accumulations, and extremes related to this application. ClimProb's tabular output can be saved or printed. It can also be graphically represented as a time series, cumulative probability distribution, or histogram. There are over 800 data sets for the 48 contiguous states available for use in ClimProb. Originally developed for extension education, the software now has broader applications including research, classroom instruction, and service/outreach. The ProblemAgricultural decisionmakers often make climate-related farm management decisions based solely on experience. Since a great deal of capital investment is associated with these decisions, there may be considerable financial risk if they are inappropriate. Ideally, climate-sensitive management decisions should be based on a quantitative analysis of long-term climate records. The objective of ClimProb, the software package described in this paper, is to assist the user to make more accurate, reliable, and informed climate-related decisions. Software ApproachLong-term climatological records of maximum and minimum temperature and water equivalent precipitation exist for many locations in the USA. These data are invaluable in assisting decisionmakers in climate-sensitive sectors. ClimProb, a PC-based IBM-compatible software package, was developed to address the need to incorporate climatic information in decisionmaking. ClimProb develops probabilities of specific climatic events based on the climate history of a particular weather station. Thus, ClimProb is not a prediction tool, but rather a tool for guiding decisions based on information inherent to the long-term climatological history of an existing weather station. Applied QuestionsFor whom is ClimProb designed? ClimProb was originally developed to assist extension personnel to quickly and reliably answer clients' climatological questions. However, ClimProb is now being used to assist with applied research. The software is being used in the service arena by State Climate and National Weather Service Offices. It is also finding a home in classroom instruction both at the college level and the K-12 level. Is the user subjected to predefined time windows? Many agricultural applications are defined by a specific period of time (e.g., livestock birthing, corn silking, insect development, etc.). This software package was designed so the user can define the exact time window based on the specific application of interest. Can the software accommodate user-defined threshold values? Again, many agricultural applications are defined by a specific temperature or precipitation threshold (e.g., heat and moisture stress on crops, insect population outbreaks, accumulation of growing degree days for specific crops, etc.). ClimProb was designed so that the user could enter desired values for thresholds based on the specific application/crop of interest. How many data sets are available for use in ClimProb? There are over 800 climatological data sets available for use with ClimProb, 700 of which are long-term (60 yr or more) data sets. These data sets cover the 48 contiguous USA. What type of climatological information is available using the software? ClimProb has 17 temperature options, six precipitation options and eight degree day options. The specific options are listed below. Temperature Menu: Average maximum, minimum, or mean temperature in the time period... Date when the average temperature first falls to a threshold value... Date when the average temperature first rises to a threshold value... First occurrence of a maximum or minimum temperature ≥ a threshold value... First occurrence of a maximum or minimum temperature ≤ a threshold value... Highest temperature in the time period Last occurrence of a maximum or minimum temperature ≥ a threshold value... Last occurrence of a maximum or minimum temperature ≤ a threshold value... Longest cold spell in which maximum or minimum is ≤ a threshold value... Longest hot spell in which maximum or minimum is ≥ a threshold value... Lowest temperature in the time period Number of cold front passages (based on maximum temperature change)... Number of days in which the maximum temperature is ≥ a threshold value... Number of days in which the maximum temperature is ≤ a threshold value. Number of days in which the minimum temperature is ≥ a threshold value... Number of days in which the minimum temperature is ≤ a threshold value... Number of warm front passages (based on maximum temperature change)... Precipitation Menu. Date(s) of maximum total precipitation for N day(s) in the time period... Longest dry spell in which precipitation is ≤ a threshold amount... Longest wet spell in which precipitation is ≥ a threshold amount... Number of days in which precipitation is ≥ a threshold amount... Number of days in which precipitation is ≤ a threshold amount... Total precipitation in the time period Degree Days Menu. Accumulated cooling degree days (CDD) in the time period... Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) during the growing season... Accumulated GDD in the time period... Accumulated GDD to the end of the growing season... Accumulated heating degree days (HDD) in the time period. Beginning date to accumulate N GDD given a threshold value... Date when the accumulated GDD meet or exceed a threshold value...