High-Risk Area for Human Infection with Avian Influenza Based on Novel Risk Assessment Matrix
2023
Park, S.D. | Yoo, D.S.
Over the last decade, avian influenza (AI) has been considered an emerging disease that would become the next pandemic, particularly in countries like South Korea, with continuous animal outbreaks. In this situation, risk assessment is highly needed to prevent and prepare for human infection with AI. Thus, we developed the risk assessment matrix for a high-risk area of human infection with AI in South Korea based on the notion that risk is the multiplication of hazards with vulnerability. This matrix consisted of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry farms and the number of poultry-associated production facilities assumed as hazards of avian influenza and vulnerability, respectively. The average number of HPAI in poultry farms at the 229-municipal level as the hazard axis of the matrix was predicted using a negative binomial regression with nationwide outbreaks data from 2003 to 2018. The two components of the matrix were classified into five groups using the K-means clustering algorithm and multiplied, consequently producing the area-specific risk level of human infection. As a result, Naju-si, Jeongeup-si, and Namwon-si were categorized as high-risk areas for human infection with AI. These findings would contribute to designing the policies for human infection to minimize socio-economic damages.
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