AN ECONOMIC STUDY TO ESTIMATE AND FORECASTING THE FOOD GAP OF MEAT IN KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA

The research aims to identify the current situation of red meat, poultry meat, and fish in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Forecasting, food gap until 2020 for these meat and its impact on the future prospects for its imports has also examined. This will help to design reliable policies for the production, import and export of meat in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The research problem is  the increase of domestic consumption of meat due to population growth and inadequate domestic production. This summation the contribute to increase the deficit in the agricultural and food trade balance. The study referee to relative stability in the average production of red meat in the Kingdom during the period (2000-2014) amounting to 120.2 thousand tons, while production increased from both poultry and fish at an annual rate of about 6.2, 3.85 thousand tons, representing about 1.2 %, 4.6% of average annual production of 514.8, 82.2 thousand tons, respectively. At the same time red meat consumption in Saudi was relatively stable and swings around average during the study period amounting to 238.8 thousand tons, while increasing consumption of poultry meat, and fish at an annual rate significantly statistically amounted to about 39.7, 6.2 thousand tons, representing about 4.0%, 3.3 % of the annual average consumption of about 1003.9, 186.6 thousand tons, respectively.  Results revealed that avirtual food gap in Saudi Arabia in each of red meat, poultry meat and fish amounted to about 118.6, 489.2, 104.4 thousand tons, respectively. However, according to the results, food gap has increased from both red meat and fish to reach about 169.2 , 247.5 thousand tons, respectively, While domestic production of poultry meat has achieved surplus in all the years of study, an average of 139 thousand tons , which indicates the presence of extravagance in consumption with an average share of Saudi Arabia's per capita, 39.7 kg , which is close to three times, as much as the average  international per capita, estimated at 15.0 kg average for the period (2011-2014). Results of using Holt Winter,s two- parameters model to predict showed increasing of the virtual food gap from red meat , poultry meat and fish, reaching around 168.95, 822.0, 136.3 thousand tons respectively during 2020.