Providing a Methodological Model for the Application of Assumption Based Planningin Regional Development Studies
2015
Zali, Nader | Mansouri Birjandi, Sara
The planning literature has passed the prediction, forecasting and exploration of future concepts and has reached to futurology and foresight. Regional development planning is not exempt from this and needs a futuristic approach in order to be used after being planned. Identifying the future uncertainties and the underlying assumptions in the regional development planning by which the long-term plans have been established, is one of the most important main fields in the identification of problems and facing challenges of development documents. Post-planning also deals with the success or failure evaluation of the developed policy and planning in the future time horizon. Assumption Based Planning (ABP) is one of the post-planning methods, which could be used in preparing stable and compatible programs. This research is a combination of documentary and surveying methods in terms of the research type and is analytical and exploratory based on the new methods of futurology science in terms of the research nature which is conducted by a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. Data collection methods and techniques Delphi questionnaire was used and questionnaires are experts in developing and development issues surrounding region During two separate questionnaires have been completed. In this way, the correlation between each strategy uncertainty with mining experts from both questioners (strategies, inventory uncertainty) is calculated. The results show which areas are considered the most vulnerable strategies. Analysis of the results indicate that utilizing the ABP could be implemented in the regional development planning, which helps planners to have a consensus and commitment to the output. Thus, weaknesses and waivers existing in the long-term regional development planning could be identified and reviewed by utilizing the ABP.
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