Presentation of Tourism Regional Development scenarios Based on the Principles of Futures Studies (Case: Hamadan Province)
2016
Zali, Nader | Atrian, Frough
Tourism is an important tool for development in the world. Many countries attention to their policies and programs, to continue the development of Tourism as an effective tool in political, cultural and economic developments. This study discusses the identification of key factors believable and optimal future in the future of Hamadan province's regional tourism. The study, in terms of functional purpose, In terms of type, combination of documentary and survey methods, In terms of nature, Based on new methods of futures studies, analysis and discoveries which uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative models has been done. Given the importance of this research, In this study, Structural Analysis, methods, Scenario Planning and Delphi have been used. The results showed that 14 key factor impressive the future of tourism development in Hamadan province. These factors based on a scenario analysis lead to 41 possible statuses. After analyzing the probable scenarios, 4111 scenarios with low probability, 14 believable scenario and 5 scenarios with high probability in the development of tourism in the Hamadan province were identified. Finally, Article provides strategies for the Hamadan province's tourism development.
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