Predictions of sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem dynamics under future fishing, forced-biomass and SST scenarios
2022
Szalaj, D. | Silva, A. | Ré, P. | Cabral, Henrique | Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre [Portugal] (MARE) ; Instituto Universitário de Ciências Psicológicas, Sociais e da Vida = University Institute of Psychological, Social and Life Sciences (ISPA) | Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
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Show more [+] Less [-]English. We used the Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model to assess the future effects of multiple stressors on sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem. We assessed individual and combined impacts of changes insardine fishing pressure, biomass of sardine competitors and predators and sea surface temperature (SST). This study demonstrated that the greatest impact on sardine stock is caused by projected SST rise whose effect isdominant and detrimental to sardine stock regardless of other conditions, including sardine fishing at maximum sustainable yield (FMSY). The largest impact on ecosystem stability, maturity and diversity of flows was observedunder the forced-biomass scenarios that simulate changes in biomass of sardine predators and competitors. Moreover, these stressors alongside FMSY are projected to play an important role in the future evolution of thesardine stock. Results presented in this study can assist long-term and strategic management of the Iberian sardine stock
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