Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa
2020
Falconnier, Gatien, N. | Corbeels, Marc | Boote, Kenneth, J. | Affholder, François | Adam, Myriam | MacCarthy, Dilys, S. | Ruane, Alex, C. | Nendel, Claas | Whitbread, Anthony, M. | Justes, Eric | Ahuja, Lajpat, R. | Akinseye, Folorunso, M. | Alou, Isaac, N. | Amouzou, Kokou, A. | Anapalli, Saseendran, S. | Baron, Christian | Basso, Bruno | Baudron, Frédéric | Bertuzzi, Patrick | Challinor, Andrew, J. | Chen, Yi | Deryng, Delphine | Elsayed, Maha, L. | Faye, Babacar | Gaiser, Thomas | Galdos, Marcelo | Gayler, Sebastian | Gérardeaux, Edward | Giner, Michel | Grant, Brian | Hoogenboom, Gerrit | Ibrahim, Esther, S. | Kamali, Bahareh | Kersebaum, Kurt Christian | Kim, Soo‐Hyung | van der Laan, Michael | Leroux, Louise | Lizaso, Jon, I. | Maestrini, Bernardo | Meier, Elizabeth, A. | Mequanint, Fasil | Ndoli, Alain | Porter, Cheryl, H. | Priesack, Eckart | Ripoche, Dominique | Sida, Tesfaye, S. | Singh, Upendra | Smith, Ward, N. | Srivastava, Amit | Sinha, Sumit | Tao, Fulu | Thorburn, Peter, J. | Timlin, Dennis | Traore, Bouba | Twine, Tracy | Webber, Heidi | Agroécologie et intensification durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Département Systèmes Biologiques (Cirad-BIOS) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Université du Ghana = University of Ghana | GISS Climate impacts group ; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Inde] (ICRISAT) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM) ; Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service | International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Niger] (ICRISAT) ; International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Inde] (ICRISAT) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | University of Pretoria [South Africa] | Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny [Yamoussoukro] (INP-HB) | National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture, ARS-USDA ; USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service | Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System | International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center [Zimbabwe] (CIMMYT) ; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | Agroclim (AGROCLIM) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS) ; School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE) ; University of Leeds-University of Leeds | Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation ; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources | Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin = Humboldt University of Berlin = Université Humboldt de Berlin (HU Berlin) | IRI THESys ; Humboldt State University (HSU) | Agricultural Research Center (ARC) | Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC) | Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics ; Universität Hohenheim = University of Hohenheim | Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada | Ottawa Research and Development Centre ; Agriculture and Agri-Food (AAFC) | University of Washington [Seattle] | School of Environmental and Forest Sciences ; University of Washington [Seattle] | Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales (CEIGRAM) ; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) | ETSIAAB ; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) | CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO AF) ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP) ; Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) | International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development | University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (UCAS) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE) | Crop Systems and Global Change Research Unit ; USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service | Institut d'Economie Rurale (IER) | Department of Soil, Water and Climate ; University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN) ; University of Minnesota System (UMN)-University of Minnesota System (UMN)
International audience
Show more [+] Less [-]English. Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
Show more [+] Less [-]AGROVOC Keywords
Bibliographic information
This bibliographic record has been provided by Institut national de la recherche agronomique