Advancing disaster risk management in an ecological context: the case of veldfire management in South Africa

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2023.

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Worldwide vegetation fires in peri-urban and rural settings pose a major hazard to social, economic and environmental assets. In South Africa, such fires are known as veldfires and they are necessary for maintaining natural processes in the fynbos, savanna and grassland biomes. Paradoxically, despite veldfires being ecologically beneficial, they often pose a risk to people and their property. This is especially so in the wildland–urban interface where buildings are found in the proximity of flammable vegetation. South Africa’s National Veld and Forest Fire Act, No. 101 of 1998 (South Africa 1998) provides a framework for setting priorities for veldfire management including the establishment of Fire Protection Associations (FPA). It seeks to find a balance between reducing risks to human lives and livelihoods while maintaining fire regimes which look after the functioning of fire-adapted ecosystems. Risk management offers a way for implementing this legislation and the National Veldfire Risk Assessment, completed in 2010, used risk management principles to establish the relative levels of veldfire risk in each of the country’s district and local municipalities. No detailed examination has been carried out of the applicability of the National Veldfire Risk Assessment framework and accuracy of nationally-generated veldfire risk information at local scales. This research addresses the gap between the National Veldfire Risk Assessment and how implementable this is to Fire Protection Associations and, at a finer scale, the wildland-urban interface. It examined three study areas typifying different spatial scales, climates, land-use practices, fuel types and assets at risk. It provides a systematic, stepwise, replicable, scalable assessment framework for determining veldfire risk that is in line with national policy (legislation). Importantly, it involves local stakeholders, and uses sound scientific ecological knowledge and established risk management principles to develop an accessible and practical methodological “tool” to identify different categories of risks at a range of spatial scales. In determining the risk, the likelihood of veldfire occurring was established, using combinations of the vegetation type and age, with the premise that the more flammable the vegetation the more likely a veldfire will occur. Consequences were decided on by identifying the types of buildings present and categorising the social and economic impacts should veldfire damage or destroy these buildings. The results were then mapped to show where vulnerable assets in the landscape are exposed to veldfires and in so doing enabling veldfire authorities to allocate resources according to the levels of risk present. This research has developed an accessible and practical “tool” to identify different categories of risks at a range of spatial scales and confirmed the relevance, applicability and scalability of the National Veldfire Risk Assessment framework. Adopting this approach will assist fire authorities to spend available budgets more effectively with more emphasis being placed on preventing rather than merely responding to veldfires. It will also assist in prioritising risk mitigation measures to prevent the inevitable future veldfires becoming disasters.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wêreldwyd hou natuurlike bosbrande in buitestedelike en landelike gebiede 'n groot gevaar vir sosiale, ekonomiese en omgewingsbates in. In Suid-Afrika staan sulke brande as veldbrandebekend. Veldbrande is nodig vir die instandhouding van natuurlike prosesse in die fynbos-, savanna- en grasveldbiome. Alhoewel teenstrydig, is veldbrande wel ekologies voordelig, maar lei dikwels tot risiko’s vir beide mense en eiendomme. Dit is veral waarneembaar waar natuurlike veld en stedelike gebiede bymekaarkom, en waar huise en strukture gevolglik aan vlambare plantegroei blootgestel kan word. Suid-Afrika het die Nasionale Wet op Veld- en Bosbrande, no. 101 van 1998, aanvaar as wetgewing vir die verbeterde bestuur van veldbrande. Dit verskaf 'n vaste raamwerk vir die bepaling van prioriteite vir veldbrandbestuurspraktyke, soos die stigting van Brandbeskermingsverenigings (BBV). Dit poog om 'n balans te vind tussen die vermindering van risiko’s vir lewens en lewensbestaan, terwyl brandbeplanning sodanig gedoen word om die funksionering van brandaangepaste ekosisteme te beskerm. Risikobestuur bied 'n manier om hierdie wetgewing te implementeer en 'n Nasionale Veldbrandrisiko-evaluering is in 2010 gedoen. Hierdie strategiese oorsig het die relatiewe vlakke van veldbrandrisiko in elk van die land se distriks- en plaaslike munisipaliteite bepaal en sodoende brandweerowerhede in staat gestel om hulpbronne volgens risikovlakke toe te wys. Die doel van hierdie navorsing was om meer ruimtelik-eksplisiete benaderings te ontwikkel om die Nasionale Veldbrandrisiko raamwerk, prosedures en ruimtelike data wat op nasionale vlak gedoen is, op kleiner skaal toe te pas deur middel van drie gevallestudies, naamlik (i) die Groter Stutterheim BBV, in ‘n grotendeels landelike gebied van die Oos-Kaap, (ii) 'n groep van vyf brandbestuurseenhede binne die Suid-Kaap BBV, wat 'n komplekse natuurlike veld en stedelike oorgang verteenwoordig, en (iii) die natuurlike veld-stedelike intervlak aan die oostelike grens van die Stad Kaapstad. Elk van die drie gevallestudies verteenwoordig verskillende klimate, grondgebruikspraktyke, vlambare materiaal, asook bates wat kwesbaar is. Risiko’s is bepaal deur die waarskynlikheid en gevolge van veldbrande ruimtelik te evalueer. Hierdie proses het beide biofisiese en sosiale faktore in ag geneem. Semi-gestruktureerde onderhoude is met BBV-amptenare en -lede gevoer om plaaslike kennis en waardes by die risikobeoordelings in te sluit. Die waarskynlikheid van veldbrande is vasgestel deur kombinasies van die plantegroeitipe en -ouderdom te gebruik met die uitgangspunt dat hoe meer vlambaar die plantegroei is, hoe meer waarskynlik sal 'n veldbrand voorkom. Gevolge is bepaal deur die soort geboue wat teenwoordig is te identifiseer, en die sosiale en ekonomiese impakte te kategoriseer indien veldbrande hierdie geboue sou beskadig of vernietig. Lae-, medium-, hoë- en ekstreme risikoklasse is dan bepaal deur waarskynlikheids- en gevolge-graderings met behulp van 'n risikomatriks te vergelyk. Daarna is die resultate gekarteer om aan te dui waar kwesbare bates in die landskap aan veldbrande blootgestel word. Hierdie innoverende navorsing het belanghebbendes se insette, goeie ekologiese kennis en risikobestuursbeginsels ingesluit. Dit het 'n toeganklike en praktiese "hulpmiddel" ontwikkel om verskillende risikokategorieë op 'n reeks ruimtelike skale te identifiseer. Dit het die relevansie en toepasbaarheid op verskillende skale van die Nasionale Veldbrand-risikobepalingsraamwerk bevestig. Die toepassing van hierdie raamwerk sal veldbrandbestuurders help om risikobeperkingsmaatreëls te prioritiseer om te voorkom dat toekomstige veldbrande ontaard in onvermydelike rampe.

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