Combining modeling approaches for participatory integrated assessment of scenarios for agricultural systems: an application to cereal production systems in Camargue, South of France

Models are common tools used for scenario assessment of agricultural systems. In this paper we present the combined application of three modeling approaches for participatory integrated assessment of scenarios for agriculture in the Camargue area (South of France). By means of a land use change analysis (LUC), an agent-based model (ABM), and a bio-economic model (BEM), we assessed with farmers and other stakeholders of the area scenarios related to the CAP reform and the possible extension of alternative, more environmentally friendly, farming systems. The LUC analysis was used as a tool to characterize, from a retrospective point of view, the capacity for change of farming systems. By identifying and measuring the main biophysical constraints and actual socio-economic situation, we were able to initiate the discussion with farmers and other stakeholders inside the Camargue region. The ABM has proved to be a powerful tool to organize and focus the collective discussions on possible adaptation strategies of farming systems. Finally the use of the BEM helped to discuss with stakeholders some plausible and desired scenarios for agricultural systems in the region. The combined application of the three modeling approaches is embedded in a more general framework for Prospective and Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems (PIAAS). In PIAAS, stakeholders play a central role in the definition of scenarios and indicators for their evaluation, the co-development of models, and their use for scenario assessment. Specific results for scenarios related to different subsidies levels for rice under the CAP reform and the reduction of pesticide use are presented as well as the evaluation of the whole framework by local stakeholders.