Bioclimatic modelling and environmental tolerance to global change in strawberry tree

The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) displays potential to be successfully businesslike-cultured in several areas of Portugal and southern Europe, but remains largely a neglected crop. This region is also particularly vulnerable to global warming, reduction of precipitations and a long-term negative effect on vegetation. To investigate interactions between the species’ distribution and ecological factors we used 319 plots (1km grid level), where the species are present in Portugal, characterized with 8 ecological attributes: ombrothermic Index (OI), thermicity Index (TI) and continentality Index (CI), pH, organic matter (OM), sand, topographic position index (TPI), number of fires (NF) and burned area (BA). The obtained matrix was firstly analyzed through PCA to reduce the space of analysis by a construction of synthesis variables (Spearman’s rank correlation matrix) and thus to detect patterns within the data set and possible collinear covariates. Finally, the vulnerability of strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined. For that purpose, two ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs) scenarios were predicted (RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0) using climatic data, extracted from WorldClim, for distribution changes characterization in two periods (2050 and 2070). The MaxEnt allowed spatial Interpolation using the 319 1K plots. The PCA showed that the climatic attributes (OI, and TI) displayed the highest components’ correlation values. The strawberry tree prefers areas with higher TI and lower acidity values within the mesomediterranean and termomediterranean belts. Additionally, with lower correlation values, the presence of the species is explained by lower OI values, OM, BA and NF. The prediction results revealed reduction of the potential area of the species, providing a key tool to support conservation management decisions, to design regions of provenance, and to manage genetic improvement programs.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion