Avaliação de impactes do desenvolvimento urbano sobre a estrutura ecológica da Península de Setúbal: uma aplicação baseada em autómatos celulares utilizando o modelo SLEUTH
2015
Afonso, Marta Isabel Baptista | Arsénio, Pedro Miguel Ramos | Rodrigues, João Pedro Ferreira
Mestrado em Arquitectura Paisagista - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
Show more [+] Less [-]The aim of this thesis is to apply a cellular automaton model, SLEUTH, to a 1432,7 km2 area centered in Península de Setúbal to simulate the impacts of different land use policies projected out to 2030. The study area has experienced rapid and disorganized urban growth in the last decades leading to a great loss of natural resources. Therefore the model was calibrated using a historic time series of 1940, 1963, 1990 and 2007 developed areas and the projections were made according to three different policies scenarios: (1) Current Trends, (2) Moderate Ecological Protection and (3) Extreme Ecological Protection. This thesis: Studies the nature conservation history, the evolution of ecological based planning, specifically Ecological Network and the legal framework in Portugal; Studies cellular automaton, highlights the SLEUTH model and reviews the most relevant works based on the model; Analyses the urban growth patterns of the study area since XIX century to the current year; Analyses the components of Ecologic Network of the study area; Tests SLEUTH accuracy; Simulates urban growth out to 2030 with the purpose of understanding how the urban growth affects the Ecological Network’s components and how Ecological Network influences urban growth patterns according to the three scenarios. The results were analyzed with Fragstats 4.2.
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