Quantifying the Cumulative Effects of Large-Scale Reclamation on Coastal Wetland Degradation

Considering the importance of coastal wetlands as key land resources and the ecological degradation caused by large-scale and multi-stage reclamation, as well as the significant synergistic and superimposed effects of reclamation on wetland degradation in temporal and spatial dimensions, it is vital to conduct in-depth research on the impact mechanisms and cumulative effects of reclamation on wetland degradation. However, the existing methods for evaluating these cumulative effects still have some shortcomings in characterizing the spatiotemporal scale. Consequently, it is urgent to introduce or develop a cumulative effect evaluation method based on remote sensing. Taking the Jiangsu coastal wetland as a typical case study area, the present study constructed a cumulative effect evaluation method based on calculus theory combined with landscape succession modeling and statistical analysis. This method was then used to quantitatively analyze the impacts and cumulative effects of reclamation on wetland degradation in the Jiangsu coastal region from 1980 to 2024. The results show that degradation of the Jiangsu coastal wetlands over the last 45 years covered 2931.54 km², accounting for 46.92% of the area in 1980. This degradation primarily reflects a shift from natural wetland to constructed wetland. In addition, the reclaimed area of 2119.61 km² is mainly used for aquaculture and agricultural cultivation. The reclamation rate of Jiangsu showed insignificant fluctuations and significant spatial differences. The reclamation rate of the north counties and cities presented a downward trend, while that of the south counties and cities presented an upward trend. Reclamation has a significant impact on wetland degradation, with a contribution rate of 50.62%. The cumulative effect in the study area reached its maximum value in 2015, except for Nantong City. This study provides a new perspective for quantitatively analyzing the impacts and cumulative effects of coastal wetland reclamation and provides guidance for the effective management and sustainable utilization of coastal wetland resources.