A discrete-time risk-structured model of cholera infections in Cameroon
2021
Eric Che | Abdul-Aziz Yakubu
In a recent paper, Che et al. [5] used a continuous-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model with risk structure to study cholera infections in Cameroon. However, the population and the reported cholera cases in Cameroon are censored at discrete-time annual intervals. In this paper, unlike in [5], we introduce a discrete-time risk-structured cholera model with no spatial structure. We use our discrete-time demographic equation to ‘fit’ the annual population of Cameroon. Furthermore, we use our fitted discrete-time model to capture the annually reported cholera cases from 1987 to 2004 and to study the impact of vaccination, treatment and improved sanitation on the number of cholera infections from 2004 to 2019. Our discrete-time cholera model confirms the results of the ODE model in [5]. However, our discrete-time model predicts a decrease in the number of cholera cases in a shorter period of cholera intervention (2004–2019) as compared to the ODE model's period of intervention (2004–2022).
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