The Measurement and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China’s Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone

Carbon emissions in agricultural production activities have become an important source of accelerating climate warming. At present, low-carbon agriculture is not only an important means to mitigate climate warming, but also a necessary process of transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture. Therefore, to achieve the sustainable development of agriculture in China’s Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone (WTS Economic Zone), the governments should vigorously promote the upgrading and realize the development of low-carbon agriculture. By adopting the latest emission coefficients and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operator, this paper selected agricultural land use, rice paddies, crop production, livestock manure storage and livestock enteric fermentation as the five carbon emission sources, and measured agricultural carbon emissions in the WTS Economic Zone from 2010 to 2017. Thus, from the time perspective, the average agricultural carbon emissions in the WTS Economic Zone showed a fluctuating downward trend, from 762.64 × 103 tonnes in 2010 to 710.02 × 103 tonnes in 2017. From the spatial perspective, total agricultural carbon emissions among regions are quite different. To further clarify the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in the WTS Economic Zone, by applying the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, this paper selected the research and development intensity, the added value of agriculture, the proportion of agricultural labour force, the overall level of urbanization, per capita disposable income of rural residents and per capita arable land areas as the influencing factors, and then measured the direction and degree of the influences on agricultural carbon emissions in different temporal-spatial backgrounds. The results showed that the added value of agriculture, the proportion of agricultural labour force and per capita arable land areas had positive influences on agricultural carbon emissions, while the research and development intensity, the overall level of urbanization and per capita disposable income of rural residents had negative impacts. Although agricultural carbon emissions in the WTS Economic Zone have decreased in recent years, further measures can be taken to effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions, and ultimately promote the development of low carbon agriculture according to the results of this study.