Trends in the extent of damages from natural hazards in forests in Serbia and the influence of temperature and precipitation
2016
Ranković Nenad | Nedeljković Jelena | Zlatić Miodrag | Stanišić Mirjana | Nonić Dragan
In terms of the visible effects of climate change, in Serbia as well as in other countries is present an increase of average annual temperature, reduced amount of precipitation, the occurrence of floods, droughts, forest fires and ice breakage. The aim of the research is to determine the pattern of the trends in the extent of damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia, their share in the total forest damage and the impact of temperature and precipitation on the extent of damage from natural hazards in the forests during the researched period. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend, regression and correlation analysis, methods of reasoning (abstraction and concretization, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, etc.), along with other methods and techniques necessary for obtaining all needed elements (processes, absolute growth, growth rate, etc.). Regardless of the lack of significance in all models, the research results indicate that the damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia are expanding, with increased share in total forest damages, which might be related to significantly lower temperatures and higher rainfall (snow-breaks, snow uprooting, ice-breaks, ice uprooting, floods, etc.). [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Studies of climate changes and their impact on the environment -monitoring impacts, adaptation and mitigation, sub-project br. 43007/16-III: Socio-economic development, mitigation and adaptation to climate change]
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