Real-Time Data and Flood Forecasting in Tagus Basin. A Case Study: Rosarito and El Burguillo Reservoirs from 8th to 12th March, 2018

The hydrological regime of the Iberian Peninsula is characterized by its extreme irregularity, including its propensity for periodic floods, which cause severe floods. The development of suitable cartographies and hydraulic models (HEC-RAS, IBER, etc.) allows for defining, with sufficient precision, the areas flooded by a determined return period, and for elaborating maps of danger and areas at risk of flooding, making it possible to adopt the corresponding preventive measures of spatial planning. These preventive measures do not avoid the need for contingent plans, such as the Civil Flooding Protection Plans. Many of the Peninsula’s watercourses and rivers are regulated by reservoirs built to ensure water supply and to smooth floods by releasing water in extreme hydrological climates. Hydrological modeling tools (rain/run-off) and Decision Support Systems DSS have been developed for the optimal operation of these dams in flood situations. The objective of the article is to study and prove the effectiveness of the integrated data provision in real time, while the event occurs—a circumstance that was not possible from the limited available meteorological stations available from Official Weather Services. The development of the Automatic Hydrological Information System (SAIH) in the Spanish River Basin Authorities (Confederaciones Hidrográficas), which includes a dense network of thermo-pluviometric stations and rain-river flow gauges, has allowed for new perspectives in order to realize an effective forecast method of flows during episodes of extreme precipitation. In this article, we will describe the integration of a hydrological modeling system, developed by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Tajo (River Authority), to meet the described objectives; the results of this methodology are novel. This allows for the processing of the 15-minute data provided, including the simulation of the snow accumulation/melting processes and the forecast of inflows to the reservoir to help in the establishment of safeguards and preventive waterflow releases. Finally, the methodology described is shown in a real case of study at Rosarito and El Burguillo Reservoirs.