The Cost of Inaction | Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Climate change is impacting human health in myriad ways, including by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, and disruptions to food systems. The impacts of climate change on health—already profound—are only expected to worsen over time. Not only will the number of diseases and deaths from climate-sensitive health risks increase, but so too will the geographical range of these diseases. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are expected to face a disproportionate burden of these impacts due to their higher levels of poverty and income inequality, and weak healthcare systems. With growing recognition that the climate crisis is a health crisis, the international community has expressed urgent calls for action on climate and health. The response of the health community and researchers has been largely focused on studying the link between climate change and health. A limited number of studies have established empirical links between climate conditions and the number of cases of different diseases in specific national (or subnational) contexts, particularly focusing on vector-borne and waterborne diseases. In addition, few studies have aimed to assess the economic cost associated with the health impacts of projected climate change. This report aims to address the existing knowledge gap and provide a deeper understanding of the interconnection between climate and health, in terms of the risks to human health and the economic burden of these risks. Specifically, it provides a quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of climate change based on the number of cases and the number of deaths resulting from selected vector- and water-borne diseases, stunting, and extreme heat. An assessment of the economic cost of climate change on health (in terms of both morbidity and mortality) is also provided. The analysis covers 69 LMICs with national populations exceeding 10 million people in the base year 2020. These 69 countries comprise 96 percent of the tota population of all LMICs.