نقش سرمایه اجتماعی در بهبود تاب‌آوری خانوارهای روستایی در مقابل خشکسالی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان مشهد) | The role of Social Capital to Improve the Resilience of Rural Households in Drought Conditions) Case Study: Mashhad Township (

Persian. امروزه جوامع روستایی بیشترین آسیب را از اثرات خشکسالی دیده­اند. با توجه به آسیب­پذیری خانوارهای روستایی توجه به سرمایه­ اجتماعی به‌عنوان یکی از مؤلفه‌های کلیدی تاب­آوری، می­تواند بهبود روند برنامه­ریزی برای توسعه روستایی را تسهیل کند. لذا این پژوهش با هدف کلی بررسی نقش سرمایه اجتماعی در بهبود ابعاد تاب­آوری خانوارهای روستایی در شرایط خشکسالی در سطح شهرستان مشهد انجام گرفت. در این راستا از روش تحقیق پیمایشی با به‌کارگیری پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری­، 11706 نفر از خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان مشهد است که بر پایه جدول مورگان، 372 خانوار با روش نمونه­گیری تصادفی طبقه­ای چندمرحله‌ای با انتساب متناسب انتخاب شد. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده­ها، از مدل­سازی معادلات ساختاری (SEM)، آزمون t تک نمونه­ای و همبستگی پیرسون استفاده گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که خانوارهای موردمطالعه از نظر وضعیت سرمایه اجتماعی در وضعیت مطلوبی قرار دارند اما از نظر وضعیت تاب‌آوری در وضعیت مناسبی نیستند. همچنین، نتایج تحلیل همبستگی نشان داد که بین سرمایه اجتماعی و تمامی ابعاد تاب­آوری خانوارهای روستایی رابطه مثبت و معنی­داری وجود دارد. علاوه بر این نتایج مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری پژوهش نشان داد که ابعاد سرمایه اجتماعی با ضریب (82/0) اثر مثبتی بر ابعاد تاب­آوری خانوارهای روستایی در برابر خشکسالی شهرستان مشهد دارد. در بین عوامل پنهان سرمایه اجتماعی عامل شبکه­های اجتماعی (93/0) بیشترین نقش را در بهبود تاب­آوری خانوارهای روستایی در برابر خشکسالی ایفا کرده است. همچنین بیشترین اثر سرمایه اجتماعی مربوط به بعد اقتصادی و کمترین اثر مربوط به بعد کالبدی تاب­آوری خانوارهای روستایی بوده است.

English. Extended Abstract Introduction Over the past few years, the world has faced various climatic anomalies. Climate change poses a significant threat to natural and human systems on a global scale. Natural hazards, as recurring phenomena, can become catastrophic and have devastating impacts in the absence of effective systems to mitigate them. Among natural hazards, drought is one of the most complex, threatening both human life and natural ecosystems. Given the various drought management strategies, the drought risk management approach aims to reduce the loss of life and financial damage caused by droughts. Implementing effective strategies to reduce vulnerability, along with increasing resilience, is considered the primary step in drought risk management. The key element to improving the condition of rural households during drought conditions is increasing attention to the concept of resilience, which promotes positive adaptation and flexibility in such situations. Social capital is recognized by social science scholars as one of the key components of community resilience. Resilient communities can better cope with shocks, and sudden changes do not disrupt their development to the extent seen in less resilient communities. Therefore, development in communities characterized by high levels of social capital and consequently higher resilience is likely to be more sustainable than in communities with lower levels of resilience. Social capital can play an important role in reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and hazards by strengthening social systems through cooperation and communication among various organizations, groups, and social networks. Rural areas in Mashhad Township have been directly and indirectly affected by the impacts of drought. The occurrence of droughts in the region has led to increased vulnerability of rural communities due to their low resilience to this hazard. Therefore, emphasizing rural resilience, where social capital plays a significant role in enhancing it within the framework of drought risk management, is crucial. Since improper drought risk management has been the root of many issues and challenges in the region, enhancing the resilience of rural residents through strengthening social capital plays a critical role in drought risk management. Consequently, this study, relying on social capital, seeks to answer the question of how the social capital and resilience of rural households in Mashhad Township fare against drought. It also investigates how social capital affects the dimensions of household resilience. Therefore, the study first aimed to assess and evaluate the status of social capital and the level of resilience of rural households against drought in Mashhad Township and then to examine the relationship between social capital and the improvement of rural resilience dimensions in Mashhad Township.   Material and Methods This study is quantitative in nature, with an applied objective, and in terms of data collection, it is a descriptive-correlational research. To gather information, the documentary method was used for the theoretical part, while the survey method, based on field observation and questionnaires, was utilized for the empirical part. Social capital and resilience are measured in various ways. In this study, a set of indicators was used to measure and evaluate resilience and social capital. By reviewing the literature and conducting library studies, 31 items related to social capital were developed within three components, while 79 items in 16 components were designed to evaluate the economic, social, infrastructural, institutional, and environmental dimensions of resilience. The questionnaire items were constructed using a five-point Likert scale. The statistical population of this study consists of 11,706 rural households residing in Mashhad Township. Using the Morgan table, a sample size of 372 households was selected. Multi-stage sampling was employed to ensure representation. The validity (both face and content) of the questionnaire was confirmed by a group of experts in geography and rural planning with experience in similar studies. Additionally, Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to assess internal consistency among various indicators. After data collection, the results were analyzed using the one-sample T-test, Pearson correlation test, and structural equation modeling (SEM). SPSS and AMOS software were employed for data analysis.   Results and Discussion This study used the T-test to determine the status of social capital components and the resilience components of rural households against drought in the studied Township. The results revealed that rural households in Mashhad Township have a social capital status above average. Therefore, due to all social capital components being above average, it can be concluded that rural households in Mashhad Township are in a relatively good situation in terms of social capital. However, the results also indicate that the average resilience index, except for the environmental and physical dimensions, has a score below average, suggesting that the households studied are not in a favorable position in terms of drought resilience. From the perspective of rural resilience dimensions, environmental and physical resilience have the highest scores, while institutional resilience has the lowest. The Pearson correlation test results indicate that at a 1% error level, there is a positive and significant relationship between social capital and all dimensions of rural households' resilience to drought. To examine the most influential indicators of social capital on the resilience dimensions of rural households, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was utilized. The conceptual model of the research was formed based on the indicators and dimensions of social capital (SCapital) and rural resilience (R). The results of the standardized model indicate that social capital has a positive effect (0.82 coefficient) on the resilience dimensions of rural households in Mashhad Township against drought. Among the latent factors of social capital, the social networks factor (0.93) played the most significant role in improving the resilience of rural households. Regarding the effects of latent factors of social capital, the greatest impact was observed in the economic dimension of household resilience, while the least impact was related to the physical dimension.   Conclusion Social capital, as one of the key components of resilience, plays a significant role in improving the various dimensions of resilience in rural communities during drought conditions. Given that individuals and communities increasingly face severe and frequent risks due to climate change, and considering the vulnerability of rural settlements, it can be argued that strengthening social systems and social capital enhances their adaptive capacity and reduces their vulnerability. Based on the findings of this study and considering the impact of social capital on improving the resilience of rural households, it is recommended that planners and policymakers enhance the resilience of rural households by promoting local grassroots groups with proper government support. Efforts to establish rural organizations such as cooperative funds, microcredit funds, and professional associations are essential. It is also suggested that relevant rural organizations diversify their activities and employ strategies such as forming associations and cooperation groups to ensure broader participation in social fields. Furthermore, increasing farmers' awareness of modern and efficient irrigation methods through suitable training programs is highly recommended.