Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
2020
Méjean, Aurélie | Pottier, Antonin | Fleurbaey, Marc | Zuber, Stéphane | Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) | Princeton University | Paris School of Economics (PSE) ; Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (CES) ; Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | ANR-16-CE03-0001,FAIR-CLIMPOP,Equité, changement climatique et population(2016) | ANR-17-EURE-0001,PGSE,Ecole d'Economie de Paris(2017)
URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/
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Show more [+] Less [-]English. Climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction. The most relevant trade-off then may not be between present and future consumption but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicitly accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. Using the class of number-dampened utilitarian social welfare functions, we compare different climate policies that change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction. We analyse the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Low inequality aversion and a preference for large populations favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion on the preferred policy is reversed. This is due to the fact that a higher inequality aversion both decreases the welfare loss of reducing consumption of the current generation and also decreases the welfare gain of reducing the future risk of extinction.
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