Increasing variability in resource supply over time disrupts plant-pollinator interactions

Insect-plant interactions are key determinants of plant and insect fitness, providing important ecosystem services around the world-including the Arctic region. Recently, it has been suggested that climate warming causes rifts between flower and pollinator phenology. To what extent the progression of pollinators matches the availability of flowers in the Arctic season is poorly known. In this study, we aimed to characterize the community phenology of flowers and insects in a rapidly changing Arctic environment from a descriptive and functional perspective. To this end, we inferred changes in resource availability from both a plant and an insect point of view, by connecting resource and consumer species through a metaweb of all the plant-insect interactions ever observed at a site. Specifically, we: (1) characterized species-specific phenology among plants and insects at two High-Arctic sites-Cambridge Bay in Nunavut, Canada, and Zackenberg in Northeast Greenland; (2) quantified competition for flowers using sticky flower mimics; (3) used information on plant-pollinator interactions to quantify supply and demand for pollinator services versus flower resources during the summer; and (4) compared patterns observed within a focal summer at each site to patterns of long-term change at Zackenberg, using a 25-year time series of plant flowering and insect phenology. Within summers, we found evidence of a general mismatch between supply and demand. Over the 25-year time series, the number of weeks per summer when resource supply fell below a standardized threshold increased significantly over time. In addition, variation in resource availability increased significantly over years. We suggest that the number of resource-poor weeks per year is increasing and becoming less predictable in the High Arctic. This will have important implications for plant pollination, pollinator fitness, and the future of the Arctic ecosystem, as both plants and their pollinators are faced with widening resource gaps.