Przewalski’s horse distribution analysis using geospatial data within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone habitats
2025
Taras Melnychuk | Tetiana Fedoniuk | Petro Pyvovar | Pavlo Topolnytskyi | Denis Vishnevskiy
The recovery of the Przewalski’s horse population in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the protection of this unique species, and the creation of effective monitoring and habitat management plans using geoinformation technology are all crucial. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a monitoring system for this species that considers various factors of the environment. The research methodology involved a multi-step process that included collecting data (through a literature review and field observations), figuring out which key factors to model, and confirming the findings. As a result, habitat suitability maps were created for Przewalski’s horse distribution by synthesising data on terrain, climate, hydrology, vegetation cover, food competition, predator presence, and safety. The models were calibrated with factual observations from 2018 to 2024. The study found five harems of Przewalski’s horses in the exclusion zone in 2023. The distribution of these species is substantially influenced by elevation above sea level, proximity to highways and water bodies, resource competition, and predator activity. The 10-kilometer radius around the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant was designated as the least favourable region due to wildfires and human activity, while the most ideal habitats were in the central section of the research territory. A cluster study found that the exclusion zone could give Przewalski’s horses an extra 350 km2 of habitat, which is vital for keeping the population alive during natural succession. The GIS models created in this study can simulate prospective future environments, considering environmental alterations and conservation efforts
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