Development of a Drought Monitoring System for Winter Wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region, China, Utilizing a Machine Learning–Physical Process Hybrid Model

Droughts, intensified by climate change and human activities, pose a significant threat to winter wheat cultivation in the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) region. Soil moisture drought indices are crucial for monitoring agricultural droughts, while challenges such as data accessibility and soil heterogeneous necessitate the use of numerical simulations for their effective regional-scale applications. The existing simulation methods like physical process models and machine learning (ML) algorithms have limitations: physical models struggle with parameter acquisition at regional scales, while ML algorithms face difficulties in agricultural settings due to the presence of crops. As a more advanced and complex branch of ML, deep learning algorithms face even greater limitations related to crop growth and agricultural management. To address these challenges, this study proposed a novel hybrid monitoring system that merged ML algorithms with a physical process model. Initially, we employed the Random Forest (RF) regression model that integrated multi-source environmental factors to estimate soil moisture prior to the sowing of winter wheat, achieving an average coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8618, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0182 m³ m⁻³, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0148 m³ m⁻³ across eight soil depths. The RF regression models provided vital parameters for the operation of the Water Balance model for Winter Wheat (WBWW) at a regional scale, enabling effective drought monitoring and assessments combined with the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI). Subsequent comparative analyses between the monitoring system-generated results and the actual disaster records during two regional-scale drought events highlighted its efficacy. Finally, we utilized this monitoring system to examine the spatiotemporal variations in drought patterns in the HHH region over the past two decades. The findings revealed an overall intensification of drought conditions in winter wheat, with a decline in average SMAPI at a rate of −0.021% per year. Concurrently, there has been a significant shift in drought patterns, characterized by an increase in both the frequency and extremity of drought events, while the duration and intensity of individual drought events have decreased in a majority of the HHH region. Additionally, we identified the northeastern, western, and southern areas of HHH as areas requiring concentrated attention and targeted intervention strategies. These efforts signify a notable application of multi-source data fusion techniques and the integration of physical process models within a big data context, thereby facilitating effective drought prevention, agricultural management, and mitigation strategies.