Do Farm Characteristics or Social Dynamics Explain the Conversion to Organic Farming by Dairy Farmers? An Agent-Based Model of Dairy Farming in 27 French Cantons
2020
Xu, Qing | Huet, Sylvie | Perret, Eric | Deffuant, Guillaume | Jiangxi University of Science and Technology | Laboratoire de Psychologie Sociale et Cognitive (LAPSCO) ; Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Laboratoire d'ingénierie pour les systèmes complexes (UR LISC) ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)
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Show more [+] Less [-]English. The drivers of conversion to organic farming, which is still a residual choice in agriculture, are poorly understood. Many scholars argue that farm characteristics can determine this choice but do not exclude the role of social dynamics. To study this issue, we developed an agent-based model in which agents' decisions to shi to organic farming are based on a comparison between satisfaction with the current situation and potential satisfaction with an alternative farming strategy. A farmer agent's satisfaction is modelled using the Theory of Reasoned Action. This makes it necessary to compare an agent's productions over time with those of other agents to whom the former attributes considerable credibility ("important others"). Moreover, farmers make technical changes that a ect their productions by imitating other credible farmers. While we first used this model to examine simple and abstract farm populations, here we also adapted it for use with data from an Agricultural Census concerning the farm characteristics of dairy farming in French "cantons". Based on domain expertise, data and previous research, we propose certain laws for modelling the impact of conversion on the farm production of milk and the environment. The simulations with "real" populations of farms confirm the important impact of farm characteristics. However, our results also suggest a complex impact of social dynamics that can favour or impede the di usion of organic farming through dynamic implicit networks of similarity and credibility. We confirm the great importance of demographic changes in farm characteristics.
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