Spatially nested species distribution models (N-SDM): An effective tool to overcome niche truncation for more robust inference and projections

English. peer reviewed

English. Species distribution models (SDMs) relate species observations to mapped environmental variables to estimate the realized niche of species and predict their distribution. SDMs are key tools for projecting the impact of climate change on species and have been used in many biodiversity assessments. However, when fitted within spatial extents that do not encompass the whole species range (i.e. subrange), the estimated realized environmental niche can be truncated, which can lead to wrong or inaccurate predictions. A simple solution to this niche truncation consists in fitting SDMs at a spatial extent that encompasses the whole species range, but this often implies using a spatial resolution too coarse for local conservation assessments. To keep a fine resolution, a solution is to fit spatially nested SDMs (N-SDMs), where a whole range, coarse-grain SDM is combined with a subrange, fine-grain SDM. N-SDMs have demonstrated superior performance to subrange (truncated) SDMs in projecting species distributions under climate change and have accordingly regained considerable interest. Here, we review developments, applications and effectiveness of N-SDMs. We present and discuss existing methods and tools to fit N-SDMs, and assess when N-SDMs are not needed. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of N-SDMs, underline their importance in reducing niche truncation, and identify remaining challenges and future perspectives. Our review highlights that subrange SDMs most often lead to niche truncation and thus to incorrect spatial projections, a problem that can be overcome by using N-SDMs. We show that the various N-SDM methods come with their strengths and weaknesses and should be selected depending on the intended goal of the study. Synthesis. N-SDMs are key tools to develop untruncated regional climate change forecasts of species distributions at fine resolution over restricted extent. While several N-SDM approaches were proposed, there is currently no universal solution suggesting that further developments and testing are crucial if we are to derive robust future projections of species distributions, at least until SDMs can be applied for most species at high resolution over large geographic extents.