Intersections of climate, peace and security in Honduras

Honduras faces a complex interplay of climate impacts and security challenges that are deeply intertwined with and mediated by its structural vulnerabilities. The country has long grappled with fragility, violence, and institutional challenges and constraints, often represented in the form of high levels of crime, gang violence, socio-environmental conflicts and gender-based violence. These security issues are rooted in longstanding inequalities, social exclusion, poverty, limited state presence, and unequal access to natural resources. In parallel, Honduras is increasingly exposed and highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and severe tropical storms, such as Mitch (1998), Eta and Iota (2020), Julia (2022), and Sara (2024), are disrupting ecosystems and causing widespread socioeconomic losses. For instance, the Central American Dry Corridor, which includes large parts of Southern and Western Honduras, experiences increasingly severe droughts, including the most recent events associated with the 2023–2024 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENOS). These changes are undermining water availability, agricultural productivity, and the health of forest and marine resources, with particularly severe impacts on rural and marginalized populations. This report addresses the question of how the interconnected dynamics of climate, peace and security interplay in Honduras by exploring five interrelated pathways through which climate impacts are shaping conflict and cooperation dynamics in the country, highlighting the urgent need to integrate climate, peace and security considerations into integrated development planning, governance strengthening, and risk-informed governance strategies. The five climate, peace and security pathways developed in this report include: 1. Climate change impacts on natural resource availability and access drive competition or foster cooperation: Climate change is intensifying pressure on water, land, forest, and marine resources in Honduras. When access is profoundly unequal and governance is weak, these pressures often fuel social tensions and conflict, particularly in regions affected by extractive industries, land grabbing dynamics, and environmental degradation. However, where community leadership, inclusive governance, and collective management exist, climate stressors can also drive cooperation and strengthen resilience. From local water committees to agroforestry initiatives and coastal conservation efforts, Honduran communities are navigating scarcity and reduced availability of resources through both contestation and collaboration, highlighting the critical role of inclusive governance and equitable access in shaping resource-based responses to climate impacts. 2. Climate change impacts undermine livelihoods, leading to collective action for adaptation or fostering illegal and maladaptive coping mechanisms: Climate change impacts undermine traditional livelihoods in Honduras, particularly smallholder agriculture and artisanal fishing, causing reduced crop yields and fish catches leading to lower incomes and food insecurity. This pressure drives individuals and households toward two coping mechanisms: collective adaptation, or maladaptive and illegal strategies. Positive responses include initiatives such as climate-smart agriculture, agroecology, watershed restoration and co-management, or livelihood diversification, often supported by community organization and capacity building. However, in fragile and violence affected contexts, some individuals resort to illegal activities such as illicit crop cultivation, illegal logging, child labor, or direct confrontation in public demonstrations and protests, increasing exposure to violence and insecurity. Gender and youth face disproportionate impacts, while insecurity and conflict frequently hinder collective adaptation efforts. 3. Climate change influences human mobility patterns, fostering adaptive capacities or exacerbating social tensions and human security risks: Climate impacts influence human mobility in Honduras, sometimes serving as an effective adaptive strategy but also often carrying risks of human insecurity and social tensions. Individuals and families move internally and internationally to move away from climate shocks and pressures like droughts and extreme weather events, seeking less vulnerable places with better livelihoods, resources, and personal security. When human mobility is planned and safe, it supports resilience and development by enabling the flow of remittances, knowledge and skills, as well as by guaranteeing safe spaces for migrants and IDPs. However, unplanned or unsafe human mobility can intensify vulnerabilities and risks in transit and destination areas, fueling social tensions, exposing individuals to security risks, and increasing climate vulnerability. 4. Extreme weather events, along with government preparedness and response, influence institutional capacities, governance and political legitimacy, positively or negatively: Inclusive, timely, and locally coordinated disaster risk reduction strategies in Honduras can be an opportunity to build horizontal and vertical trust, strengthen institutions, and reinforce social cohesion. Conversely, exclusionary, top-down, or poorly coordinated responses often expose governance weaknesses, deepen inequalities, and erode public confidence, fueling grievances and social tensions. In Honduras, extreme weather events have revealed both the fragility of public institutions as well as the potential for institutional strengthening and legitimacy when responses actively engage communities and address their structural vulnerabilities. As climate shocks increase, investing in participatory and locally grounded governance is essential to foster resilience, legitimacy, and social cohesion. 5. The unintended consequences of poorly designed climate and security policies lead to further risks: Climate adaptation and mitigation efforts that ignore local land rights or exclude indigenous and peasant communities from their design and implementation often spark resistance and deepen conflicts. Similarly, militarized responses to climate and environmental risks may worsen existing grievances and erode trust between communities and public institutions. When climate and security interventions are developed separately and without considering local contexts and needs/demands as well as power dynamics, they risk reinforcing inequalities and social tensions. To avoid these negative outcomes, policies must be coherent, participatory, and conflict-sensitive—integrating local knowledge and addressing structural vulnerabilities.