Translating cropland and trade connectivity for mitigation of emerging pathogens: Priority locations globally and focusing on the Americas
2022
Plex Sulá, Aaron I. | Alcalá Briseño, R.I. | Xing, Yanru | Etherton, Berea A. | Andersen, K.F. | Andrade-Piedra, Jorge L. | Avelino, Jacques | Dita Rodriguez, Miguel Angel | Gazis, Romina | Hodson, D. | Jarvis, Andrew | Kenyon, L. | Kreuze, Jan | Mahabaleswara, S.L. | Mosquera Cifuentes, Gloria Maria | Sonder, K. | Vallad, Gary E. | Garrett, Karen A.
Analyses of crop-specific cropland and trade network structures provide a first step for guiding strategies to manage emerging crop pathogens, for iterative improvement as more detailed data become available. We analyzed global to regional cropland and trade networks for the potential spread of emerging pathogens in twelve crops key to food sustainability. We identified which locations have high cropland connectivity globally, and in a more detailed analysis for Central America. A location with high cropland connectivity is more likely to have an important role in epidemics, and so is a candidate for prioritizing mitigation. In epidemic scenario analyses to evaluate relative risk for each crop, we identified countries in the Americas with cropland patterns more likely to result in high levels of pathogen establishment, and so more likely to need focused attention to manage invasions. Country-specific trade networks indicate how invasion risk varies among crops and pathogens, and which components of the network merit particular phytosanitary attention. Using these maps of risk for planning in advance can inform phytosanitary strategies globally, regionally, and within countries, for an efficient response to epidemic invasion. Integrating cropland and trade connectivity with other geographic factors - such as weather conduciveness, management landscapes, regional transportation, local trade, and international phytosanitary networks, will strengthen pest risk assessment and mitigation.
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