Climate projections of air temperature and precipitation for the Ledava, Pesnica and Vipava basins in the 21st century | Podnebne projekcije temperature zraka in padavin za porečja Ledave, Pesnice in Vipave do konca 21. stoletja

English. As part of the project ‚CeVoTak‘, Integrated Management of Small Water Retention and Soil Erosion Prevention Measures in Agricultural Catchments, we studied changing temperature and precipitation conditions up to the year 2100. The study was conducted on agricultural lands in the catchments of the Ledava and Pesnica rivers in the sub-Pannonian region and the Vipava river in the sub-Mediterranean region. A common climate database was used to create the climate projections - RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations from the project EURO-CORDEX and scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The projections were prepared for three time periods 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 for 6 different regional climate models for average, minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of the ensemble of model simulations for all scenarios shows similar results for the basin of all rivers, an increase in temperature (maximum in winter, minimum in spring), with high confidence for all scenarios and periods. Projections of precipitation are less reliable, but show an increase in annual precipitation due to the winter increase. The use of climate change projections with expert interpretation is essential for determining the vulnerability of individual areas and building resilience through the implementation of climate change adaptation.

Slovenian. V okviru raziskovalnega projekta ‘CeVoTak’, celovito upravljanje malih ukrepov za zadrževanje vode in preprečevanje erozije tal v kmetijskih povodjih, smo naredili oceno spremenjenih temperaturnih in padavinskih razmer do leta 2100. Raziskava je potekala na kmetijskih površinah v povodjih rek Ledave in Pesnice v omiljenem celinskem in reke Vipave v omiljenem sredozemskem podnebju. Za pripravo podnebnih projekcij smo uporabili skupno klimatsko podatkovno bazo - simulacije RCM (Regional Climate Model) iz projekta EURO-CORDEX in scenarije RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP2.6, 4.5 in 8.5. Projekcije so bile pripravljene za tri obdobja: 1-bližnja prihodnost: 2011–2040; 2-sredina stoletja: 2041–2070 in 3-daljna prihodnost: 2071–2100 za 6 različnih regionalnih podnebnih modelov za povprečne, najnižje in najvišje temperature zraka ter količino padavin. Analiza ansambla modelskih simulacij za vse tri scenarije  kaže podobne rezultate za porečje vseh treh rek, in sicer naraščanje temperature (največ pozimi, najmanj spomladi), zanesljivost spremembe je visoka za vse scenarije in obdobja. V primerjavi s temperaturami zraka so projekcije padavinskih razmer manj zanesljive, kažejo pa naraščanje letne količine padavin zaradi dviga pozimi. Uporaba projekcij podnebnih sprememb s strokovno razlago je nujna pri določanju ranljivosti posameznih območij in grajenju odpornosti z uvajanjem ukrepov prilagajanja na podnebne spremembe.