Controls on Alpine Lake Dynamics, Tien Shan, Central Asia

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes: in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia.