European Beech Forests in Austria—Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

A change in tree species composition in Central Europe to increase the resilience of forests when coping with climate change effects is imminent. We evaluated the present and expected future role of the European beech, (Fagus sylvatica L.), with respect to the expansion of its habitat and its stem. We assessed the current relevance of beech from data of the Austrian Forest Inventory 2007/09, and analyzed forest policies promoting the establishment of beech forests. We simulated forest growth with the model CALDIS, linked with the timber-market model FOHOW2. We used a business-as-usual (BAU) forest management strategy under moderate (RCP 4.5 BAU) or extreme (RCP 8.5 BAU) climate change. We also simulated an extreme climate change scenario with a forced change in the tree species composition (RCP 8.5 Change Species). Beech occurs in Austrian forests over the elevational gradient of 250 to 1600 m a.s.l. In low elevation, it forms beech-dominated forests, often for the supply of the domestic fuelwood demand. In mountain regions, beech enriches the diversity of Norway spruce, (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.)-dominated forests. In a BAU setting, the habitat of beech increases only slightly in both climate scenarios. The scenario &lsquo:RCP 8.5 Change Species&rsquo: increases the habitat of beech in the next 60 years considerably. With progressing warming, other broadleaved tree species gain relevance. The vulnerability to drought and pathogens are limiting factors for Austrian beech forests. The future habitat depends on many factors such as the ability of forests to cope with climate change, the confidence to arising market opportunities of beech timber in the wake of technological progress, and financial and non-financial incentives for the implementation of adaptive forest management.