Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Environmental Parameters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: A Comprehensive Study and Future Projections

Land use and land cover (LULC) change, driven by environmental and human activities, significantly impacts ecosystems, climate, biodiversity, and socio-economic systems. This study focuses on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan, a region with sensitive ecosystems and diverse landscapes, to analyze LULC dynamics and their environmental consequences. Based on Landsat imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2020, we used the Random Forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine (GEE) to classify LULC, and the CA-ANN model to project future scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2100. Additional simulations were conducted using the MOLUSCE Plugin in QGIS. The results revealed a 138.02% (4071.98 km2) increase in urban areas from 2000 to 2020, marking urbanization as a major driver of LULC change. Urban expansion strongly correlated with land surface temperature (LST) (R2 = 0.89), amplifying the urban heat island effect. Rising LST showed negative correlations with the key environmental indices NDVI (&minus:0.88), MNDWI (&minus:0.49), and NDMI (&minus:0.62), signaling declining vegetation cover, water resources, and soil moisture, respectively. Projections for 2100 predict LST rising to 55.3 &deg:C, with NDVI, MNDWI, and NDMI dropping to 0.36, 0.17, and 0.21, respectively. Vegetation health, as indicated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), also declined, with maximum and minimum values falling from 4.66 and &minus:5.75 in 2000 to 2.16 and &minus:2.55 in 2020, reflecting increased barren land and reduced greenness. The spatial analysis highlights significant transitions from vegetated to barren or urban land, leading to declining moisture levels, water stress, soil erosion, and biodiversity. Projections show continued reductions in forests, vegetation, and agricultural lands, replaced by barren and built-up areas. Declines in key indices such as NDVI, MNDWI, and NDMI indicate deteriorating vegetation, water resources, and soil moisture levels. These findings emphasize the need for sustainable urban planning and environmental management. Expanding urban green spaces, using reflective materials, and preserving vegetation and water resources are vital to mitigating heat island effects and maintaining ecological balance. Anticipated declines in LST, NDVI, MNDWI, NDMI, and LAI stress the urgency for climate adaptation strategies to protect human health, ecosystem services, and economic stability in KPK.