Ecosystem-Model-Based Valuation of Ecosystem Services in a Baltic Lagoon: Long-Term Human Technical Interventions and Short-Term Variability
2025
Gerald Schernewski | Thomas Neumann | Sarah Piehl | Nicole M. Swer
We conducted 3D ecosystem model simulations over a 10-year period, supplemented by socio-economic data, to evaluate the ecosystem services provided by the large, shallow Oder/Szczecin Lagoon. Our analysis focused on three scenarios reflecting the progressive deepening of the navigational waterway across the lagoon: from 6 m (1880) to 10.5 m (1984) and finally to 12.5 m (2023). For the 10.5 m scenario, the total value of all six ecosystem services was estimated at EUR 272 million/year, or approximately EUR 0.4 million/year/km2. The individual contributions of each ecosystem service were as follows: nitrogen retention, EUR 166 million/a: phosphorus retention, EUR 5 million/a: carbon storage, EUR 0.4 million/a: active recreation, EUR 61 million/a: landscape aesthetics, EUR 36 million/a: wild fish catches, EUR 3.2 million/a: and transportation, EUR 32 million/a. Among these, denitrification emerged as the most economically important process, valued at EUR 178 million/year, or EUR 0.26 million/year/km2. Regulating ecosystem services displayed substantial interannual variability and pronounced seasonality. Additionally, the two parts of the lagoon, Kleines Haff (Germany) and Wielki Zalew (Poland), exhibited distinct patterns. Our model indicates that channel deepening enhances sediment burial and significantly increases phosphorus and carbon retention. However, the associated increase in connectivity to the Baltic Sea appears to have a minor effect.
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