Time-Series Analysis of Monitoring Data from Springs to Assess the Hydrodynamic Characteristics of a Coastal Discharge Zone: Example of Jurjevska Žrnovnica Springs in Croatia
2025
Andrej Stroj | Jasmina Lukač Reberski | Louise D. Maurice | Ben P. Marchant
This study assesses the functioning of the karst aquifer system located on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea, where saltwater intrusion often presents a major problem for freshwater supply. We use two years of sensor data collected from two coastal springs to conduct a range of time-invariant and time-variant statistical analyses over various timescales. We perform separate analyses of the within-day and longer-term variation in the data as well as the interactions between the spring levels, salinity, rainfall, and sea levels. Such comprehensive analyses provide a greater understanding into the inner functioning of the intricate, heavily karstified aquifers. Time-invariant time-series analyses of the hourly data indicate that the spring levels and salinity are strongly controlled by sea levels. Furthermore, time-variant wavelet analyses demonstrate that the variation in spring levels in both springs has two modes defined by flow regime. Increases in the delay of the spring response to sea level indicate that aquifer diffusivity decreases in low flow conditions. Analyses facilitated the development of a conceptual model of the karst subsurface in the discharge zone. Using daily data, we constructed a linear mixed model of the spring levels. This model identified long-term sea level changes, rainfall from previous weeks, and seasonal recharge patterns as the primary factors influencing longer-term spring dynamics.
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